Analytics Breakdown: Ducks lose to Kraken after a Sensational First Period
This will hopefully be a new series on the website where I look at some of the numbers from the prior game and attempt to break it down so we can all better understand what happened in the game outside of the score line. Full disclosure, I am about to have my hands full shortly so the frequency and consistency of this series might be hit or miss, but I am going to do my best to get some thoughts out there for most games.
On the surface this seems like a really good first game of the season for the Ducks, even though they lost by a 3-1 score line. They ended up with a larger total of expected goals at 5v5 (score and venue adjusted) by a 2.75 for to 2.58 against and significantly larger total of shot attempts at 5v5 (no adjustment) by a 72 for to 49 against, but when you dive into the numbers that is largely buoyed by a fantastic first period.
First Period
1st period shot locations and xG totals at 5v5/All sits
The Ducks came out of the gates extremely hot and even though they conceded a 1-0 lead early in the game, that did not stop their momentum. Their foot was on the gas pedal all period in a way that we did not see often in the 24-25 campaign. All the lineup decisions for Quenneville were clicking, with the Ducks seemingly having tons of chemistry within the lines to recover loose pucks and instantly move the puck into dangerous scoring locations. Per the chart above, they had numerous shots from in close and in the slot, and likely should have deposited one more goal than the Beckett Sennecke season opener (Side note: really cool moment for him and his family. I have my reservations about him being up all season, but if he remains in an elevated role then I will change my tune).
Coming out of that period with a 1-1 scoreline was not the end of the world, especially if they were going to be able to continue that play. The main issue is that did not happen.
Second Period
2nd period shot locations and xG totals. All Situations
2nd period shot locations and xG totals. 5v5
The Ducks started the 2nd period with a similar level of pressure and possession as the 1st period, but without the same ability to get to the front of net and the slot. They largely were held to the outside, then off a bad turnover by Terry, followed up with poor coverage by Trouba and Carlsson, Seattle was able to take the 2-1 lead seemingly against the run of play.
After that goal, the Ducks really struggled to find their footing again, with the majority of their looks coming on the PP.
We saw this from the team at times last year, where they would essentially flat line for long stretches of time, so a big third was was going to be needed form the team to try and undo the lack of chances at 5v5.
Third Period
3rd period shot locations and xG totals. All Situations
3rd period shot locations and xG totals. 5v5
That big third period that was needed was nowhere to be found. They did not completely no show in the third, but the team continued to struggle to get to the dangerous areas of the ice, all while allowing Seattle to continue their push and generate chances off the rush against.
The most perplexing thing to me personally was the line blender that was used by Quenneville for the final 10 minutes of the game. As can be seen in the shift chart below, he did not only change up the lines and d pairs, but he continued to change them throughout those final 10 minutes, to potentially try and stem the bleeding and find some chances.
The issue is this had the opposite result. Seattle controlled the game as the Ducks continued to change their lines and their best spell of possession and in zone chances in the face of the standard score effect run of play that would assume the Ducks would be controlling the game down by 2 in the final 10 minutes.
5v5 xG player charts
In totality this was a game that quite frankly it is hard to evaluate. It is just game 1 of the season, but it was against a team that was meant to be a basement dweller. The Ducks had periods of times where they looked like absolute world beaters and other stretches where they looked discombobulated. If the team can bottle how they played in the first period and repeat that, then they will be in a great position to take the step that many pundits and the team internally expect.
Hayward Fit Check
Bryan Hayward’s turtleneck game became a bit of an obsession in the CTP discord last season, so I wanted to make sure to give Hayward his props in the games I write about.
This was a very simple and classy start to the season for the one they call Hazy. A simple black turtle neck with a gray suit. Nothing flashy about it but it gets the job done wonderfully and sets a nice baseline. There is room for improvement with added flair, but this is a very strong start.
This look gets a very solid 7.7/10
All stats per Evolving-Hockey and Hockey Viz