It has been a crazy week for me with my wife and me welcoming our 2nd child into this world, so as you can imagine, I have not had time to write these articles for each game this week, but as a make good for all the wonderful CTP readers out there, I wanted to carve out a little virtual paper for a quick look at some of the numbers from these games and the season on the whole.

If you are looking for a more eyetest/scouting level breakdown, please check out Felix’s awesome work that he has been providing for each game.

10/11 at San Jose

Full disclosure, this game was played while I was at the hospital. i went back and watched this game afterwards, but it is a bit of a blur. This breakdown will largely be about the numbers above.

In this game, the Ducks were playing one of the expected bottom feeders in the league in the San Jose Sharks, in a game many expected the Ducks to win and dominate. Instead, from the scoreboard perspective, we saw the exact opposite, with the Ducks going down by 2 goals multiple times and having to mount a late comeback to send the game to overtime, where they would eventually pick up the two points. The question is, do the numbers show that was the “expected result” based on the chances each team got? The answer is a resounding no.

The Ducks and Sharks played a relatively close affair through two periods that at times was wide open and also largely spent on special teams. The big difference at that point in the game was goaltending, with Petr Mrazek allowing multiple soft goals. Going into the third, my question was would the Ducks would follow up their poor third in Seattle with another one that went contrary to standard score effects?

That did not happen and instead the Ducks continued to hound the Sharks and generate a ton of shots, especially from the slot as can be seen in the shot chart below.

All in all, this was a good performance by the Ducks over 60 minutes when compared to the Kraken game, even if there were mistakes that could be cleaned up (see Felix’s game notes for more on that).

10/14 vs Pittsburgh

The game against Pittsburgh is a fascinating one to look at numerically. Pittsburgh is a team a lot of people have pegged to be a bottom-feeder in the league, but they still have both Crosby and Malkin and have for the last few years been a middle-of-the-pack 5v5 team, even though the results have faltered.

What we saw in the home opener for the Ducks is a game that at times felt up and down and wide open at 5v5, but the Ducks did not generate many scoring opportunities off those open plays, and instead, the Penguins were able to push the pace and get those looks. That resulted in the Penguins holding a pretty significant advantage in the xG totals at 5v5.

The difference maker in this game for the Ducks was the power play, though. The game went from a significant edge to the Pens at 5v5 to a near stalemate in all situations, which is reflective of the success of the PP. The first unit for the Ducks looked dynamic in both player movement and puck movement, which resulted in multiple high-quality looks from various locations as compared to prior years, where it seemed like the unit was attempting to set up a specific look each time.

That PP success drove the win, especially with the late-game winning goal

10/16 vs Carolina

The game against the Hurricanes always looked like the litmus test for this team. The first three games would be against mediocre to bad teams, so it would be hard to fully judge where this team was at. The Canes, on the other hand, are a powerhouse of a team, and if the Ducks wanted to make a statement, it would have been in this game.

Instead, though, we all watched a game where for large stretches the Hurricanes were the better team, with some flurries for the Ducks. There were certainly positive signs for those who are looking for them that this team can take that step with the stretches they had, but the overall play and carelessness with the puck led to the already juggernaut Canes to dominate the xG battle both at 5v5 and all situations at a nearly 2 to 1 clip.

This was only one game, so just like all the prior ones so far, it is hard to have sweeping takeaways in the small sample, but that is personally the game I was looking forward to watching to see how this team with lofty expectations would fare.

Quick Hitting Notes

After 4 games this season, the Ducks are hovering around the 50% xGF% mark, depending on the site (Evolving has them at 47.45% while Hockey Viz has them at 50.4% ), which can be considered a win or a loss depending on your point of view. On one hand, the Ducks were 30th in xGF% last season at around 44%, so being around 50% is an improvement, but on the other hand, outside of Carolina, the Ducks have not played powerhouse teams. I think a baseline of 50% would have been my expectation for the team, but my expectation is a bit lower than most.

The good news is from the charts above, they are generating a lot of good looks in tight, but the bad news is the place they allow the most shots against is the slot and the net front. That is not a recipe for success.

When it comes to D pairs, the Zellweger Trouba pairing has been the Ducks’ best, largely driven by a breakout type start of the season for Mr. Zellweger. The Lacombe Gudas pairing is eating a lot of minutes but usually ends up middle of the road from an xG perspective, while the Mintyukov Helleson pairing has struggled for the most part (Although they played well vs Carolina).

For the forward lines, there has been a stark drop-off when comparing the top 6 to the bottom 6. The Carlsson and McTavish lines have looked dominant at times, while the Granlund and Poehling lines have struggled overall.

Like everything right now, this is an extremely small sample size, so there are not any large takeaways, but these are things to monitor as the sample builds.

Hayward Fit Check

At San Jose

This was a much more tame look from the one they called Hazy. It featured a nice sweater vest and multiple buttons undone on a patterned shirt. It is a classy and simple look, but it is not that exciting when we compare it to the turtleneck from the season opener. It is a fairly middle-of-the-road sportscaster look.

Also, it seems like he used the same jacket from the home opener, which knocks the score down a point

This look gets a 5/10.

Vs Pittsburgh

This is what I am looking for. Hayward is coming out with the late 90s plain shirt under a suit jacket look and is rocking it well! Add in a very nice pocket square, and this is both simple and unique for a broadcaster. I want more of these looks!

This look gets a solid 7/10

Vs Carolina

On Thursday night, Hayward took the somewhat basic look from the San Jose game and, with a slight change, improved it significantly. I personally would not rock a leather jacket like this, but I respect the vision from Hayward here to go for it. Give me these different looks all season, and I will be a happy camper for the fit checks!

This look gets a 6.9/10

I am still waiting on more turtlenecks!

All stats per Evolving-Hockey and Hockey Viz

Analytics Breakdown: Ducks Stumble against the Powerhouse Canes