Analytics Breakdown: More than a Feeling
Let’s switch things up a bit here and start off with something fun. To be quite honest, last night’s game from an analytics perspective was not great, and I really don’t think there are any great takeaways, but I will try later. So here we go!
Hayward Fit Check
Guys and gals, I think the jig is up, and the broadcast knows about our love of the turtle neck. The wonderful Aly Lozoff even called this the turtleneck trifecta!
Even though the whole crew looked amazing, we need to really focus on the one they called Hazy because this segment is called the Hayward Fit Check, and oh boy did he deliver. The tan coat is just absolutely perfectly paired with the gray turtleneck (Yes, I know someone in Discord is going to call out my lack of knowledge of the actual material). It really pops in this look, and I am such a huge fan. Then the turtleneck has that je ne sais quoi that I have been looking for in the turtlenecks from Hayward. The straight black ones have been nice, but this one with the pattern on the shirt really adds some pizzazz. Great work, Hazy.
We can briefly discuss Aly and Ahlers as well. Aly’s turtleneck is perfect. I have 0 notes outside of Aly is the best. Now, for Ahlers, I appreciate the effort to join in with the turtleneck trifecta, but he is definitely pulling up the rear here in terms of look. The turtleneck is not meant to be a showpiece in his look and is just an undershirt. If we get another turtleneck trifecta game, I need to see Ahlers step up.
(If any of the broadcasters are reading this, I am so sorry, baha).
Hayward, on his own, gets a 9.9 from me. This is near perfection, and the only reason why I am not giving it a 10 is just to leave the door open for improvement.
The entire broadcast will get a 9.6. If Ahlers had done a little bit more with the turtleneck, we would be talking a 10, but I love the effort from everyone on the broadcast.
Now time for the Hockey
Last night’s game was extremely sloppy from both sides, and there was plenty of horrendous goaltending. At 5v5, the Ducks had 2.63 xGF and allowed 4.54 xGA, and then in all situations the totals were a bit closer at 4.06 xGF and 4.59 xGA, but that includes Granlund’s empty net goal, which carried a 0.5 xG total.
If we remove that empty net shot because it is not that indicative of the total game flow, the all situations totals would be 3.56 xGF to 4.59 xGA.
This was not some offensive outburst for the team in this game from a pure chance perspective, and instead it was largely driven by some very high-skilled plays along with very poor goaltending from Korpisalo. If the Ducks are going to want to make that push that we keep talking about, offensively, they need to find a way to generate more consistent offensive pushes. Like you can see in the game flow chart, they were largely limited to small bursts of offense in this game
5v5 shot locations for the whole game
Defensively, it seemed to be the polar opposite of the offense. It seemed like the Ducks were continually allowing chances against from sloppy play, and a lot of those chances and shots were at the net front. Hopefully, this is a one-off of a game, but this was one of the worst 5v5 defensive performances of the season.
The,n goaltending-wise, Mrazek did not necessarily have an easy job, but he still needs to improve, even if in totality he was barely a negative from a GSAx perspective last night. He made some big saves but also allowed some very weak goals, like the 3rd goal, where he was completely out of position for a point shot and got beat low.
On a player level, the Vatrano McTavish Sennecke line was very poor yesterday, which does make some sense. Vatrano, since coming to the Duck,s has not been a play driver and has been a liability defensively, and that, paired with a young Sennecke still finding his way, could result in some tough outings. I think the lineup does need to be tweaked to work around that, whether that is moving Terry to that line or Colangelo up to that line.
To end on a positive #TroyTerryisVeryGood. He was so good in last night’s game, and the critique of his game from the general public seems to be a bit unwarranted to me. Coming into last night’s game, he had 5 points in 6 games and now sits at 7 points in 7 games, along with having his usual positive impact on the game from a process perspective. It seems like largely that critique came from the goals not coming early on, but does that really matter if he is setting up teammates while playing very good hockey? I think not.
All stats per Evolving-Hockey and Hockey Viz