Analytics Breakdown: The Story So Far

We will do something a bit different with this edition of the analytics breakdown. I still will break down the game in Tampa, but in large part, this article is about the Ducks' story so far (yes, that is a play on the great band; go check them out).

Tampa Game

This was a game for the Ducks where if you looked purely at the shot clock or even the shot attempt chart, you would think the Ducks were the better team by a smidge vs Tampa (Corsi chart for the game below). This is where xG becomes a very powerful tool because it factors in the context of those shots and where they occur to give you a better idea of the shot quality.

The Ducks for the first half of the game kept it pretty even with a very good Tampa Bay team, but midway through the second is when things turned. Tampa had a really good shift that resulted in multiple net front shots and eventually led to a goal for the Lightning, and they did not really let up after that. The Lightning ended up winning the 5v5 xG battle by the tune of 3.10 to 2.0 for the Ducks, and it got even worse when factoring in special teams, with Tampa having 5.36 xG in all situations to the Ducks’ 2.91. In large part, that disparity was driven by the 5 on 3 that happened in the third.

The Ducks, up until this game, had done a good job staying out of penalty trouble, but that came back to bite them in this one, with the only saving grace being that Dostal was immense on the PK. The Ducks do deserve credit for scoring two quick ones after that kill, but they do need to be better with their discipline and 5v5 play to beat teams like Tampa moving forward.

The Season So Far

I figured now would be a good time to have a little check-in on the season so far. It is important to keep in mind with all of the following information that we are in a very small sample size. These charts are indicative of how the team has played in the games, but with the sample being small, they are not necessarily predictive of how the season will go. There is a lot of hockey left, and a good or bad run of games can quickly change things.

The following image is from Hockey Viz and shows the 5v5 xGF and xGA for the season so far, per game, smoothed out.

The smoothed 5v5 xG/60 is the one I want to draw attention to. For the first few games of the season per HockeyViz, the Ducks were generating more offensive chances than they were giving up, which as you can imagine is what you want to see, with the issue being that after those few games there has been a pretty big turn with the offensive chances starting to dry up a bit and the defense starting to become sieve like.

The saving grace for this team and why the record has not been so bad is that over this recent stretch, they have been able to score with the lower quality of chances and get stellar goaltending from Dostal. The issue is that it is not a long-term process for success and will end up with the ceiling for the team being much lower than the 90+ points that are going to be needed to make the playoffs.

Per Evolving Hockey, the Ducks are, in totality over this 8-game stretch, the 6th best offensive team at 3 xGF/60, but also are the worst defensive team at 3.48 xGA/60. Just for context, the 22-23 Ducks (Eakins’ final season had a 3.49 xGA/60). The caveat is this is a small sample, and those numbers can change on a dime defensively, but so can the offense, and as shown above, the offense is already starting to dry up.

The schedule is going to get tougher, so it is great the Ducks have banked points in this first 8-game stretch, but they need to play a lot better if they want to push for the playoffs.

RAPM Charts

You probably have seen us use the Evolving Hockey RAPM charts in the past. They are nice snapshots into shot quality and quantities both for and against, and goals for in comparison to replacement. I wanted to highlight a few good ones and a few bad ones that were interesting to me so far. Keep in mind, as always, the sample size is small, so these are not set in stone for the whole season, but they are representative of the season these players have had so far.

Olen Zellweger has been dynamite offensively, and while the defense has been lacking from a chance perspective, this is the Olen Zellweger we have wanted to see since he broke into the NHL. All gas, no breaks.

The rumors of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. He is still #verygood

Frank, per GAR models and thus RAPM charts, has been poor defensively for years, but that has at least been offset by some positive offensive metrics. The issue is that it is not the case this season.

Full credit to Beckett for producing through these first 8 games with 3 goals and 2 assists for 5 points, but to my eyes, there has still been a lot lacking in his game from a defensive zone awareness and puck protection perspective. This bears itself out in these charts, and it is worth noting I had to adjust the axis from a standard 3 z score to 4 to fully see his defensive metrics. He has been a drag for the team defensively so far, and you have to wonder what the season will hold for him if he cannot clean that up and the production dries up.

Brian Hayward Fit Check

This is one of the more basic looks from Hazy, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. This is a look I could see myself rocking to a wedding, although maybe a more solid jacket than the pattern he has on. It is not bad, but just lacks that flair that I am looking for.

I give this look a 6.2/10
All stats per Evolving-Hockey and Hockey Viz