Analytics Breakdown: Windy City Adventure

The Ducks yesterday took on the Chicago Blackhawks, who coming into the contest were sitting at a 45.7 xGF% at 5v5 and in case you forgot they were 31st in the league last season with a 43.37 xGF% at 5v5. This was a game where the Ducks needed to put their foot on the pedal if they indeed are trying to make the playoffs this upcoming season.

5v5 Play

Lets start this breakdown by looking at the 5v5 play. The good news is the Ducks came out on the better end of this per Evolving Hockey to the tune of 2.48 xG to 2.02 xG, good for a 55% xGF% at 5v5. In a vacuum you can look at that as an improvement on the 47.43 xGF% that the Ducks headed into that game with. The issue is these games do not occur in a vacuum, and like I discussed in prior installments of these breakdowns, the Ducks are playing some really soft opponents to start the season. This Chicago team was extremely poor last season and you would like to see a team that is looking to take a step dominate by a much larger margin.

Then when you zoom in a little, you can see that this edge was largely driven by a strong start to the 2nd period. The Blackhawks early in that period iced the puck, and then on the pursuing shifts, the Ducks were able to hem in the Blackhawks for around 3 minutes or so. During that time period, the Ducks had a flurry of chances equating to nearly 1 xG. While the team deserves to be applauded for taking advantage of a tired unit, this was a bit of a one off, with there only being a few other flurries resulting in high xG chances. I have some concerns that this flurry was more so about the Hawks than the Ducks, so I don’t really know if we should/could have a global takeaway for this game from these numbers. This also shows the issue with purely looking at a small sample. One flurry can really flip these numbers.

One other spot for concern is the third period. With the game tied coming out of the 2nd intermission, the Ducks essentially flatlined to start that period. The Hawks came out and controlled the puck and shot count, generating nearly 1 xG during the first 10 mins of the period culminating in the go ahead goal. It took that to happen for the Ducks to find their footing again. Games are always going to have their ebs and flows, but I would have liked to see this team come out and dominate a poor hawks team to earn this win.

On the individual player level, I don’t think there was much to glean from looking at the numbers from Hockey Viz. Most of the team just treaded water, with the only poor outlier being Gudas.

All Situations/Special Teams Play

The really good news is the Ducks PP has looked dangerous to start the season and the PK has looked solid. The Ducks PP late in the first generated a lot of high quality looks, which will eventually lead to goals even if it did not in that specific case.

Then late in the third, the Ducks were gifted a 6 on 4 PP with a puck over the glass. The puck movement on that was not the best we have seen from the Ducks with the extra man, but the high skill of Mason McTavish shone through with a ridiculous shot. For a good PP you need high skilled players to make the play along with a system that can exploit the openings.

All in all this was a fine game from the Ducks with the game going to OT feeling like a proper result. The question I have coming out of the game is should that be good enough for this team this season?

Hayward Fit Check

Time for what everyone has been waiting for, the Brian Hayward fit check. We were given an absolute treat for this game. Not only did Hazy bring back the turtleneck that we all love and want more of, but he complimented it with a very nice tan blazer. It is hard to fully tell what material the blazer is made of to my uncultured eyes, but I just adore this look (I was shamed on discord for not knowing it was a camel hair twill sport coat).

On top of Hayward, we were also blessed with Ahlers joining in on the turtleneck game! This segment is meant to be about Hayward, but Ahlers forced his way into here with that look. The dueling turtlenecks for the broadcast were elite.

Hayward on his own gets an elite 9.1 from me. No clue what he could do better than this but gotta leave the door open

In a first for this segment, the broadcasts look gets a 9.6 to recognize the double turtlenecks!

All stats per Evolving-Hockey and Hockey Viz