Analytics Breakdown: You're Gonna Go Far Kid

Song of the Game

This was a game driven by the kids for the Ducks, and I have not given a shout-out to any great Orange County bands yet. So for the song of the game, we are going to change that and go with every Ducks fan’s favorite band (That is sarcasm because I know tons dislike them in the community), the Offspring.

5v5 Play

I am going to start with a massive positive, which is on almost every stat site: the Ducks won the 5v5 xG battle in this game. Per Evolving-Hockey, it was to the tune of 2.84 xGF to 2.22 xGA. The Ducks were a bit fortunate to score 5 goals on the 2.84 xGF, due to both great shots and poor goaltending, but they were the better team, and that is extremely impressive. The Panthers going into last night’s game had a 56.62% xGF% on the season, which was good for 4th in the league. The Panthers, after last night, have only had a sub 50% xGF% at 5v5 in 5 of their 13 games, and one of those is to the Ducks. Yes, they are missing some players, which impacts their finishing ability, but the process for that team is still very good.

5v5 shot chart for the 1st Period

I also find it fascinating to break down how the game unfolded to reach that point. The first period was extremely rough for the Ducks, with their chances being very limited, except for the Gauthier breakaway goal and one in tight on Nikita Nesterenko, while the Panthers found ways to get to the middle of the ice and generate high-danger looks.

5v5 shot chart for the 2nd period

The 2nd period is when things began to turn a bit in the Ducks favor. The Ducks started off with some good chances, but then gave up the breakaway goal to Rodrigues and that was followed by some control from the Panthers and a PP that gave the Panthers the lead. The Ducks rebounded very nicely from going down with their best stretch of the game at that point where they generated over 1 xG, culminating in the go ahead goal by Nikita Nesterenko.

5v5 shot chart for the 3rd period

The third period at 5v5 was extremely impressive for the Ducks. Once all the special teams play had expired, the Ducks held a one-goal lead with a little over 10 minutes left in the game. Score effects would dictate that the Panthers (a great 5v5 team) would control the play and chances to try and tie the game, while the Ducks sit back and try to just limit the damage. What actually happened was completely different.

The Ducks controlled the shots and chances, limiting the Panthers to two dangerous looks quickly after the game got back to 5v5. After that, the period was all Ducks. The Panthers essentially flatlined in chances, and the Ducks continually found ways to get chances in front of the net. This is how you have to defend leads in the NHL, not by sitting back and letting the game come to you, but by continuing to attack, while not having disastrous turnovers.

On an individual level, Olen Zellweger was immense in this game. To me, he has been the Ducks’ best D man and has continued to flourish.

Non 5v5 Play

The PP really seemed to be clicking last night, with the Ducks being patient and looking for good opportunities. Jay Woodcroft deserves a ton of credit for how he has transformed the PP so far.

In previous iterations of this article, I have been harsh on the PK, and it was justified. Tonight, that would not be the case, though. In totality, the PK was extremely good for the night, especially in the third period. The Ducks put themselves in a tough spot with the amount of penalties they took in the third, but they limited the Panthers to essentially no dangerous chances. The only rough kill came in the 2nd that led to the goal against, but you take that when you look at how they performed in the third.

The only critique I have for this team is discipline. I am not really going to get into whether the Carlsson penalty was a major or a minor because that is not the point of this article, but you have to make sure you don’t give the refs a reason to blow the whistle when leading in a third period. The Ducks took 4 penalties spanning from the final 2 minutes of the 2nd into the midway point of the third. They were fortunate that the Panthers also took 3 penalties over that stretch to mitigate the issue. Discipline is quickly becoming an issue for this team that needs to clean up.

Brian Hayward Fit Check

I like this look from Hazy. It is not my favorite look he has ever put together, but the jacket is very solid with the pattern being a bit subtle but also fun, and then the sweater underneath it adds a bit of flair. This is a very solid look for him.

I give this look a 7/10

I should also give Mr Ahlers a shout-out for his look on this broadcast. I don’t know how to fully feel about the coat, but I have been told it looks so much better in person than on TV. I respect going for a colorful look and wish it came across better.

All stats per Evolving-Hockey and Hockey Viz