Analytics Breakdown: Tubthumping (VS UTA, VS WSH, VS CHI)

This might be the most unique and interesting week for the Ducks, with them losing by a score of 7-0 to the Utah Mammoth, having a solid performance vs a red-hot Capitals team, and then decimating the Blackhawks to the tune of 7-1. Before we dive into the underlying metrics of these games and how the Ducks performed outside of the scorelines, as always, we need to get into the song of the week.

Song of the Week

This song is now going to be stuck in all of your heads for the next week, and I am not going to apologize for that. Just like the chorus of this song, the Ducks got knocked down this week vs the Mammoth, but they got up again, and nothing was going to keep them down for this week.

VS Chicago

We are going to start with the most recent game of the week because this was the best Ducks game of the season, and, analytically is one of the best Ducks games ever. Everything went right for the Ducks in this one and not from a luck/variability perspective, but from an imposing their will on the game for a full 60 minutes perspective. They were constantly first to the puck and allowed nothing against either.

To be honest with you all, with a performance this dominant, I do not have much to say in terms of the numbers because they kind of speak for themselves both at 5v5 and in all situations. They had 5.65 xGF/60 and only allowed 0.66 xGA/60 (Both bests for the season), while their season average is 3.04 xGF/60 and 3.08 xGA/60. To compare this game to others from the analytics era (07-08 on), the 4.6 xGF total is the highest 5v5 xGF total the Ducks have ever had, and the 0.54 xGA is the 7th best 5v5 total the Ducks have ever had. The 89.41 xGF% is the best expected goal share percentage the Ducks have ever had. Needless to say, this was a historic performance for the Ducks at 5v5.

I know I focus on 5v5, but the all situations numbers are worth mentioning as well. The Ducks put up 6.75 xGF in this game, which means that the 7-goal total was not completely variance/luck-driven. That total is the highest xGF total the Ducks have ever put up in the analytics era. Then defensively, they allowed 0.98 xGA throughout the entire game in all situations. That is the 7th-best xGA the Ducks have put up in the analytics era.

The offense is obviously going to be the thing that everyone wants to focus on, but I think the defensive game is more important to look at. This is a team that has struggled defensively this season, and with their backup in net, they put out a stellar performance that deserves recognition.

vs Washington

The Ducks played the red-hot Capitals in this one, who are the 3rd best offensive team in the league at 5v5 per expected goals models and the 6th best 5v5 team in the league at controlling the expected goal share. The Ducks were coming off a stinker of a performance against Utah and were going to need their A game to stay with the Capitals.

The game started off favoring the Capitals, with the Ducks’ defensive errors coming to the forefront again. The Caps eventually capitalized on their pressure with a goal from Tom Wilson, but after that the Ducks started to play a bit better at 5v5, although that was largely interrupted by PPs both for and against.

The Ducks would find their footing in the 2nd, generating a steady flow of shots and chances for them, which the Ducks would use to generate some timely goals. They would eventually give up some glorious chances to the Capitals that they would pounce on. These chances largely came on errors from the Ducks in their own zone, which keep popping up throughout the season.

They would enter the third period tied, and I think the most impressive part of this game is the performance defensively in the third period. The Ducks really played steadier defense in the third, which was necessary with Husso in the net against the dangerous Capitals team. The Ducks would allow only 0.4 xGA in the third period and got the game to OT, where they have thrived this season.

Overall, this was not the best performance we have seen from the Ducks against a good team, with them finishing with a below 50% xGF%, while allowing 3.94 xGA/60 and generating 3.39 xGF/60 at 5v5, but I do think this was a solid performance. The Capitals are a very good team, and for the Ducks to counterpunch their efforts this one and remain somewhat close at 5v5 is very encouraging.

vs Utah(Written on 12/4)

So let’s get this out of the way: this was a bad game for the Ducks, both from a scoreline perspective and an underlying process perspective, even if the underlying numbers were not as bad as a 7-0 scoreline. If you remove the score line from this game, the Ducks quite honestly played similarly to other games in the past, some of which they won. The win against Florida in Florida and the win against New Jersey come to mind, for instance. The main difference between those games and this one is the PP and goaltending.

As mentioned during that period of time, the Ducks were allowing glorious chances against, but they were receiving Vezina-level goaltending from Lukas Dostal, and if he were to falter or if he were to get hurt, things could turn very quickly with how they were defending. The game against Utah was a prime example of that. The Ducks received -3.49 GSAx goaltending from the Husso and Buteyets combo, and on the flip side, faced a stellar Vejmelka. This game likely should have been tighter than the 7-0 scoreline suggests if Vejmelka were to falter a bit, along with Husso providing average goaltending, but even then, the Mammoth were the better team.

For the first period of this game, it felt like a bit of a dichotomy of possession vs xG because from the eye test, the Ducks had more of the puck in that period, but when Utah got the puck, they were able to generate dangerous looks largely from horrible defensive plays from the Ducks and bad recoveries as well.

In the 2nd period, the Ducks made more from their time with the puck and generated more chances for themselves largely from cycle and in-zone plays, which is probably the main positive from this game. This team was largely rush-dependent early in the season and has now added a layer of in-zone danger to their attack, but it was not enough to thwart Vejmelka. Then, in their own zone, they were once again giving up dangerous looks from bad defensive plays.

I wanted to specifically mention McTavish on the fourth goal against in this one because he essentially glides from the red line into the Ducks’ own zone, and if he is skating at all in that situation, he might be able to get back to break up the final pass to Peterka. Those types of backchecks and poor mental decisions are what have plagued the Ducks defensively.

From the start of the 3rd period on, it was largely garbage time, but I think the first 5-10 minutes are valuable to look at. The Ducks made a goaltending change, giving Vyacheslav Buteyets his NHL debut. I would imagine this was largely done to try and wake up the team defensively for the final frame, but instead the Ducks allowed roughly 0.6 xGA in under 5 minutes of 5v5 play.

This was a bad game for the Ducks, but this was the type of game that was bound to happen with the defensive performances they were having and the goaltending injuries. If the Ducks want to survive this spell without Dostal, they need to clean up their mistakes.

For reference in this game, the Ducks generated 2.91 xGF/60 and allowed 3.61 xGA/60, while the season average as of today is 3.04 for and 3.08 against.

Added context written on 12/8: All of these defensive issues were cleaned up in the Chicago game, which is great to see.

Trends

This is a very weird week for the Ducks to analyze any trend because the Chicago game was so good that it offsets any of the somewhat bad that occurred in both the Utah and Washington games, and really skews the individual numbers as well.

With that being said, though, the Ducks over these 3 games had a 3.98 xGF/60 and a 2.73 xGA/60, both of which are significantly better than their season averages at 3.04 xGF/60 and 3.08 xGA/60.

I do not think you can reasonably expect performances as they had against Chicago consistently due to the quality of competition that consistently comes at you in the league, but the coaching staff should be hammering home what went well in that game so that those can be built in as good habits for this team moving forward.

victory+ $10m streak game

This was a week where the Ducks were shutout, then Sennecke scored the last goal vs the Caps, then Vatrano scored the last goal vs the Hawks. It was a weird week with none of the regular picks coming in.

Brian Hayward Fit Check

I love this look from the Capitals game. I love that the turtleneck has a bit of texture on it and I really like the jacket combined with it.

I give this look a 8.9/10

This is a very solid look from Hazy from the game against the Hawks. The jacket has a nice pattern/texture to it to set it apart from the solid black undershirt.

Hazy has pulled out that white pocket square a few times now, and with the shape, I can’t stop thinking that it is an envelope. Let me know what you think is in Hazy’s envelope?

I give this look a 7.3/10

All stats per Evolving-Hockey and Hockey Viz