Analytics Breakdown: December (VS VAN, VS LA, @ CHI, @ STL)

And just like that, we have passed the Thanksgiving milestone in the NHL and have officially entered December. I always feel like the month of December is when we truly are in the middle of the season and when regression happens in both directions for teams.

Two weeks ago was a bit of a step back for the Ducks, so lets dive in to see how they fared this past week, but first, time for the song of the week!

Song of the Week

The song choice for this week has absolutely nothing with any of the games played this week (Although Chicago is mentioned in the lyrics, so boom!), but instead I am picking it because we are now in December and Neck Deep rules. For those who do not always watch the podcasts on YouTube, I have a Life’s Not Out To Get You by Neck Deep poster on my wall because that album is just perfect. This version is not the one from that album, but it is just so good.

Pop Punk is not for everyone, but if you have a soft spot for the genre and have not heard it before, check it out.

Now onto the hockey

VS Vancouver

This game feels like ages ago at this point in time because it was just under one week ago. The Ducks would lose this game to a tune of 5-4, with 3 of the goals against coming at 5v5. This was a fairly even game between the two teams, with both teams having their good and bad stretches.

The stretch for the Ducks from the end of the 1st period through the middle of the 2nd period was their best stretch, with them dominating the puck and the chance battle. As you can see in the game flow chart, it was not just a flurry here and there but a continual flow of chances for the Ducks. The only reason the Ducks were not able to score over that stretch was great play from Tolopilo in the Vancouver net. That stretch is what this Ducks team can do when they are playing well.

The issue is that once they allowed the Canucks to score, making it a 3-1 game, they really started to receive the game too much for a period of time due to their poor defensive zone work. This has become a bit of a trend for this team that even in games where they look good, they are subject to some shoddy shifts in their own zone that pile up and can eventually lead to goals.

The PP late in that period for the Ducks did not capitalize on their chance, but the Ducks used the momentum to score right after the PP expired, and then shortly after were able to use their quick strike offense to score again on an odd-man rush.

The third period was broken up by a lot of special teams play, but once the game got into the final stretch of 5v5 play, the Ducks had another shift that just had poor work in the d zone. As I mentioned earlier, they have just been subject to poor defensive coverage at the front of the net, along with turning the puck over too much, and it burned them in this one.

Overall, the Ducks had a bounce-back offensive game in this one as compared to the prior week, generating 3.89 xGF/60, but the issue was that their flaws defensively were exposed by the Canucks, with the Ducks allowing 4.63 xGA/60. The main concern I have from this game is that the Canucks are one of the worst 5v5 teams in the league this season, and a bottom-3rd offensive team at 5v5 also.

Vs LA

Let’s get into the Black Friday Matinee. This was a win that was all about the vibes for the Ducks, with them coming from behind late to tie the game and then win it in the shootout, but as you all know, this article is not about the vibes, and instead, it is about the numbers, so let’s see how they fared.

Unlike the Canucks, the Kings are one of the better teams at 5v5 this season, sitting at 13th in the league at 5v5 xGF%, and have done so by being the 5th best defensive team at 5v5. Their flaw has been the offensive side of the game, with them sitting at 25th in the league in xGF/60. This is a stark contrast to the Ducks, who are 6th in xGF/60, while 31st in xGA/60.

The game flow in this one was a bit broken up, with both teams having some good flurries, but neither team had a continual flow of chances. The Ducks would get two extremely good stretches of play in the middle of the 2nd period, in which they scored two goals, one on the PP and one at 5v5, and then another very good stretch in the third period down by 2 goals, which resulted in the Mintyukov goal. The large positive for me from this game is that the Ducks were able to have an extended period of looking dangerous against a stout Kings team and did so in various ways. I was very curious how the Ducks would fare against a stout team, and while their overall numbers (2.50 xGF/60) were worse than their season average, I think you can view that as a success vs the Kings.

The issue is, the Ducks’ flaws defensively did come out in this one, with similar issues coming to the forefront with net front coverage and poor turnovers in the d zone leading to extended periods of chances for the Kings. The Ducks allowed 3.0 xGA/60 at 5v5, which is better than their season average, but not by much, and is disappointing when considering how difficult offense has been for the Kings this season.

Overall, this was an ok performance for the team, but the underlying performance did not match the vibes. The play needs to improve for that to happen.

@ CHIcago

The game against Chicago is an interesting one because Evolving Hockey and Hockey Viz vary a bit in how the numbers bear out in this one. Evolving has the Ducks winning this game’s xG battle to the tune of 2.56 xGF (3.40 xGF/60) to 1.72 xGA (2.28 xGA/60). Hockeyviz, on the other hand, has the game 1.6 xGF for the Ducks to 1.8 xGA, with the large difference being how the two models evaluated tight in the 2nd (Ryan Poehlings’ shot) and late in the third (Beckett Sennecke’s shot).

While it was important to note that difference, I think the evaluation of the game remains the same because if two chances impact the total numbers for the team, then offensively, this game was not good enough on the whole for the Ducks. Yes, they looked good to start the game, but after that, they were not able to generate a ton of pressure and looks. When this team is really clicking, they dominate the puck and use turnovers to create odd-man opportunities. Those opportunities were not there consistently enough in this one.

Through two periods, though, the defensive effort was much better in this one at 5v5, with the only issue being the 2 1 that led to the Greene goal. Outside of that, the Ducks ‘ zone defense was significantly improved through two periods.

The issue is in the third in a tie game, the errors in their own zone started to come about again, with the Hawks gaining control of the game and eventually getting rewarded with a goal that came off a bit of an unfortunate turnover by Killorn.

The Ducks attempted to push after they went down a goal, but it was not enough.

I think overall this was a fine game for the Ducks, even if the vibes felt very disappointing due to blowing a 3-goal lead early, but with Dostal out, these types of games are bound to happen more. The Ducks have been very reliant on goaltending this season to cover up the defensive blunders, and this game was a bit of the reverse.

VS ST Louis

Usually, Evolving Hockey and Hockey Viz are aligned, but this was the 2nd straight game where they differed. Evolving Hockey had this game at 1.89 xGF (2.68 xGF/60) to 1.70 xGA (2.41 xGA/60), while Hockey Viz had it at 1.5 xGF to 2.2 xGA, so the biggest discrepancy was the defensive side of the puck, specifically in the third period.

My eye test aligns a bit more with Evolving Hockey’s data, so that is what we are going to use for the breakdown in this one. The Ducks in this game were fortunate to get their two goals in the first period, with both goals coming on low-percentage shots that Binnington should have stopped. They do deserve a ton of credit, though, for not sitting on that lead like they did a bit in Chicago; they continued to attack in the first period and generate chances, and likely should have scored another goal if it was not for Hofer. They had their looks as the game continued and eventually got the third goal in the game.

Where this team really deserves credit, though in this one is their defensive work at 5v5. As you all know by now, that has been a major issue for this team all season, and with Husso being the starter moving forward, things could get ugly score-wise if the defensive play from most of the season continued. In this one, they were much smarter with the puck and appeared to focus on the details in the zone instead of trying to get out on the fly at every opportunity.

I am not sure if this was by design or not, but against a poor goalie to start the game and an offensively starved team, that can be a recipe for continual success in this league.

To me, this was the best game of the week.

Trends from the Week

So, looking at this four-game sample, the Ducks had a 50.27 xGF% at 5v5, generating 3.11 xGF/60 and allowing 3.08 xGA/60. Both of these numbers are an improvement on the three-game sample from the previous week and an improvement on the season average that includes these numbers (2.93 xGF/60 and 3.12 xGA/60). The defensive numbers are driven by the Blackhawks and Blues game, though, with both teams not being the most stout offensive teams at 5v5. It is going to be critical that that play continues against better offensive teams because, for the next few weeks, the Ducks will have to rely on Ville Husso in net with both Dostal and Mrazek hurt.

Husso was solid for the Ducks in his short stint last season, but outside of 21-22 in St Louis, he has never found sustained success in a season. Here are his season-by-season numbers, with the last column being the most important:

Something else I wanted to mention here is the PK, specifically what happened in the St Louis game (As noted by Patrick Present on Twitter). The Ducks tweaked the PK units around, with LaCombe, Terry, and Carlsson essentially getting no PP time at all. As much as the offensive ability on the PK has been nice for the Ducks this season, that has usually come at the expense of chances coming against, and at the end of the day, the PK is about limiting the chances against first, then any offense is gravy.

Out of players with at least 10 minutes of shorthanded time, LaCombe has the worst short-handed GAR total at -1.6, with Carlsson being 2nd worst at -1.3, and Terry being 4th worst at -0.8, but when you put it into a rate, Carlsson is the worst, then LaCombe 2nd worst, and Terry 3rd worst.

So anyway you slice it, those three have not been great on the kill, even when you consider the offense they bring, and this change was a successful one. The Ducks went 6 for 6 on the kill yesterday (some of it was poor finishing from the Blues, but still), and that is what the Ducks also really need with Husso in net.

Finally, I wanted to mention Ryan Strome being scratched for yesterday’s game. This was a bit perplexing to me, if it was truly a healthy scratch. I have been a big critic of Strome in the past, but he has been very good since returning to the lineup, even if the points have not come. He has provided a very solid third-line center option for this team that has been responsible on his own end, which the team has severely needed. I know they won without him, but this season the team is better with him on the ice than when he is not on the ice.

victory+ $10m streak game

So this week we had Gauthier, then Carlsson, then Kreider, then Kreider for the last goal of the game. The trend of picking a forward that is in the top 6 would seem to be the best bet, with Kreider being a hot pick lately.

Last Goal

Brian Hayward Fit Check

I love this look from he game against Vancouver. The different shades of gray really work, and Hazy gave us a turtle neck with some pizzazz!

I give this look a 10/10. Perfection

This was a repeat of his look against Vegas, and repeating a look one week after receives some serious demerits from me on a look I already did not love.

I give this look a 5 out of 10

What a bounce back from Hazy from that look against LA. This one from the game in Chicago is right up my alley. The turtleneck and jacket look just work so well for Hayward.

I give this look a 9.2/10

Against the Blues, Hazy switched it up a bit from the Turtleneck and went a bit classy with the sweater under the jacket. I like the different shades of blue and how they also contrast with the white shirt.

I give this look a 9/10

All stats per Evolving-Hockey and Hockey Viz