Analytics Breakdown: Dammit

The Ducks last night had their toughest test of the season, going up against the best team in the league from both a standings perspective and a 5v5 xGF% perspective. Heading into last night’s game, the Avalanche had a 60.54% xGF%, which was over 3 percentage points higher than the 2nd-place team before last night’s game. They were also the best team in the league at generating chances for, with 3.48 xGF/60 at 5v5, while being the third-best team defensively at 2.27 xGA/60. Needless to say, this was going to be a tough test, so let's look under the hood to see how the Ducks played in this one. But before we do that, time for the song of the game!

Song of the Game

For the song of the game, we are going to go with Dammit by Blink-182. All the Small Things has become a song that is synonymous with the Colorado Avalanche, with their use of that song during their cup run, so Blink was a natural fit for this game. While the lyrics do not necessarily fit this game for Ducks fans, there are probably many fans saying Dammit after this game for the team.

Also, I just wanted to put one of my favorite Blink songs in here at some point

5v5 Play

Overall, at 5v5, the Ducks lost this game to the tune of 2.68 xGA to 2.13 xGF, which is good for a 44% xGF%. This is lower than the Ducks’ season average and well below the numbers the Ducks had been putting up this season, but it also is a lower total for the Avs than they had been putting up this season, so that is something to hang your hat on. To compare this game to the Ducks and Avs season totals on a per 60 minutes of ice time perspective, the Ducks generated 2.81 xGF/60, while allowing 3.31 xGA/60. So the Ducks did do a better job both offensively and defensively than most teams have done against the Avalanche, but this was also a step for the Ducks from their season numbers up to this game (3.05 xGF/60 and 3.24 xGA/60).

With all of those numbers being out there, let’s dive into the period-by-period numbers to break down how the game flow went.

5v5 Shot Chart for the 1st Period

The 1st period for the Ducks got off to an extremely rough start, with the Avs scoring on their first scoring chance of the game, and the Avs kept their foot on the gas after that point for most of the period. They generated a ton of really good looks from in tight, which can be seen on the shot chart, and many of them went on net as well. Even though the total xG was only at 1.04, the Avalanche could have had at least 2 goals in that period.

The Ducks were really kept at bay for the vast majority of the period, with most shots coming from the outside at 5v5 except for two in-tight shots by Leo Carlsson later in the period. Without those two shots, the Ducks’ xG total would have only been about 0.13.

This is not 5v5, but during the stretch of 4 on 4 play, the Ducks were dominant. They controlled the puck and the play, which resulted in a goal from Leo Carlsson. That does not show up in the 5v5 numbers, but they generated about 0.5 xG in those two minutes.

Overall, this was a period where the Ducks really were receiving the game and fell back into some bad habits from early in the season, with some careless turnovers that allowed the Avs to continue to attack in waves.

5v5 Shot Chart for the 2nd Period

The 2nd period defensively was kind of more of the same for the Ducks. I thought from an eye test perspective, they did clean up the turnover issue, but the Avs still found their chances from in close and the slot, with the Avs generating a higher total of xG in the 2nd than in the first. Something I did specifically notice on the 2nd goal for the Avalanche is that as soon as the point shot was taken, which broke the Avs player's stick, all three forwards started to bolt to the blue line to try and fly the zone, leaving an odd man advantage down low. That was not necessarily the reason the Avs scored that goal, but something anecdotal that I wanted to mention. Those plays are how you create a system that thrives on transition play, but you also live by the sword and die by the sword.

Offensively, this period felt a bit more consistent for the Ducks than the 1st period, with them having better stretches of control within the game and getting some looks in tight and from the slot, both on the rush and through in-zone offense. The result, though, was still a total that was similar to the 1st period for the Ducks, even if they had more sustained pressure.

5v5 Shot Chart for the 3rd Period

The third period was the best for the Ducks, with score effects likely playing a big part. The Ducks started the period down by 1, and then by the halfway mark of the period, were down by 2. The Ducks were able to get in tight looks, though, even with the Avs potentially sitting back and defending the lead, which is a good sign. My critique of the offense this season is that they have struggled at times generating chances with sustained zone pressure, and in the third, it seemed like they were able to do that.

Special Teams Play

For special teams, the Ducks’ PP did struggle in this one, not generating that much on the two PP opportunities that they had, one of which came in a moment that could have brought the Ducks within striking distance.

The PK also struggled in this game, with two of the four kills in the game looking really rough. In those two kills, the Avs were able to move the puck around quickly and effectively to generate a ton of chances. One thing I wanted to mention was the Terry and Carlsson duo on the kill. I have mentioned at length how getting the chances on the kill is fantastic, but it cannot come at the expense of allowing goals and chances consistently. In this game, it was extremely noticeable how much better the Avs were at moving the puck through the middle of the ice with those two on the ice vs Killorn and Poehling. The season numbers do agree with this assessment, with Carlsson being on the ice for 14.35 xGA/60, Terry being on the ice for 12.68 xGA/60, then Poehling being at 9.41 xGA/60, and Killorn at 7 xGA/60.

I have always wanted Terry on the kill, but it was for his defensive acumen not the offensive side of it. I really want to see that cleaned up if they are to remain a PK unit.

Brian Hayward Fit Check

Sadly, there is no Hazy fit check for this one due to the game being on TNT

All stats per Evolving-Hockey and Hockey Viz