Analytics Breakdown: Super Rad

The Ducks faced off against the Jets last night and posted what is likely their most complete win of the season. The Ducks held the lead for the entire game and looked very comfortable doing so.

Song of the Game

I must admit, I am not a huge fan of the Aquabats' songs or know their discography that well, but someone in Discord pointed out this song as a good one for this game, and I couldn't agree more. The Aquabats are a local band, and that game was simply put, super rad!

5v5 Play

I am going to keep the breakdown of this game a bit brief as compared to normal because it was honestly just such a complete game for the Ducks, and I want to spend some time on the difference in these last 5 games vs the prior 10 games. The Ducks largely controlled the play in this game and consistently generated their looks with some very good flurries coming in the 2nd period, culminating in Beckett Sennecke’s 2nd goal of the game.

Defensively, the Ducks were also very solid. They did allow the Jets to get shots off, but for the most part, they all came from the outside, besides a few isolated chances here and there. This was one of the more comfortable games for Dostal in a very long time.

The only thing I do want to mention as the context for this game is that the Jets are not a dominant 5v5 team, but that does not necessarily take away from this game. The Ducks have now strung together 4 straight games of an above 50% xGF% share, which is extremely noteworthy.

Non 5v5 Play

The Ducks’ PP continued to look dangerous in this one, with the Ducks getting two PP goals off Leo Carlsson’s stick. Jay Woodcroft has completely reinvented the Ducks' PP from the past few years and made them one of the more dangerous units in the league.

On the PK, the Ducks seemed to figure things out in this game. They were able to marry the aggressiveness that we have seen from them that has led to short-handed chances the other way, with stout in-zone penalty killing. The offense is always going to be welcomed, but as I have mentioned in prior articles, it cannot come at the expense of chances against when short-handed.

The Season So Far

I got asked by a great reader and listener of the pod on Twitter what has been different in this stretch that has led to these numbers improving so much. So

5v5 xGF/60 and xGA/60

The chart above tracks the xGF/60 and xGA/60 on a game-by-game basis from the beginning of the season to now. This is not cumulative.

As you can see, there has been a change in both the overall trend offensively and defensively at 5v5 for this team over this last little stretch. From the beginning of the season up until the Detroit game, the number of chances the team would generate at 5v5 was under 3.0, with that number settling in at 2.88 xGF/60.

In the articles from that period of time, I said that while they were generating chances off the rush and on the PP, they were struggling to get their looks on sustained zone time and were largely being kept to the outside. Since the Detroit game, that has changed. This team still looks dangerous on the rush, but they are getting looks in the slot on sustained zone time now.

I usually focus on xG, but per Natural Stat Trick, during those first 9 games, the Ducks had a scoring chance for per 60 of 28.02 and 11.46 high danger shots per 60. In the 6 games since they are at 33.18 scoring chances per 60 and 13.88 high danger shots per 60. Basically, they are getting more chances in each game

Defensively, they have really cleaned things up as well. They went from having a 3.46 xGA/60 in the first 9 games of the season, which was on par with Eakins’ final season as the Ducks head coach defensively, to 2.91 xGA/60. That 2.91 number is still bottom tier for the league, but it is still a large improvement, and more importantly, it means they were generating more than they were giving up, which is what this team really needs.

As for scoring chances and high danger shots, they were at 34.51 SCA/60 and 15.87 HDCA/60. In the prior 6 games, they have been at 27.97 SCA/60 and 11.49 HDCA/60. They have really started to limit the damage.

If you were to ask me what has been more impactful, I would say the defensive side of the puck, even though games have been high scoring. This team was the worst defensive team in the league at 5v5 over the first 9 games, and while they still sit last in the league at 5v5 xGA/60, they are trending in the right direction right now.

This is only a 6-game sample, and it is possible they can revert to the team of the first 9 games, but for now, the trend looks very good for this team moving forward.

Brian Hayward Fit Check

Brian Hayward thought he could slip one past me by repeating this look from the game against the Devils, but I am on to him. The only change is that he added a black turtleneck shirt instead of the regular collar shirt from the Devils game. We are only 15 games into the season, so I expected more than a repeat look

Against the Devils, I gave this look a 6.5 and stuck up for Hazy, but I cannot do the same now.

I give this look a 5.0/10

It was also requested to rate his hairstyle in a comment. I like this hairstyle for Hazy. I would give it an 8 out of 10. It suits him well
All stats per Evolving-Hockey and Hockey Viz