Analytics Breakdown: Only the Young

Song of the Game

For the song of the game, I was debating between a song by the Killers and this one that was one of Brandon Flowers’ (Lead singer for the Killers) solo tracks, and I settled on this one because it is likely less known, and this could be the way people find out about it. Either way, the Killer/Brandon Flowers are my favorite Las Vegas band and have consistently put out fantastic music.

My reasoning for picking this song, besides the fact that it is just a great song, is that this Ducks team is largely being driven by the youth. When we discussed what would need to happen for the Ducks to take a step, we focused on the young players needing to take a step, and they have. In this game against Vegas, specifically Leo Carlsson was an absolute monster and continues his torrid pace not only on the scoresheet but with his underlying numbers.

5v5 Play

Alright, that is enough for the song of the game bit, let’s jump into the meat of this article, which is the 5v5 play. This game felt like a benchmark for the Ducks. Vegas has felt like a boogeyman for the Ducks for years, and coming off two very good performances against Dallas and Florida, this felt like a true test of whether that trend continues. Vegas, going into the game, held a 51.22 xGF%, which was good for 10th in the league.

5v5 Shot Chart for the 1st period

The first period was a bit of a back-and-forth affair, with neither team truly feeling like they had a stronghold on the game. There was a lot of neutral zone play, and while both teams scored, it never felt like either was continuously threatening. This, I would imagine, fits the type of game that Vegas wanted to play because defensively, they currently sit 10th in the league with 2.48 xGA/60 at 5v5, while the Ducks offensively sit at 3.04 xGF/60 at 5v,5 which is good for 5th in the league. Vegas slowed down this period, but they were not able to continue that going into the 2nd period.

5v5 Shot Chart for the 2nd period

The first part of the 2nd period continued the trend a bit from the 1st period, with the game being a bit more to the pace of what Vegas wanted, but after the Ducks’ PP, which was unsuccessful, the Ducks really found their foothold in the game. Leo Carlsson had an elite shift right after that PP to create some havoc that led to a turnover, which eventually led to his go-ahead goal for the Ducks. That play showed everything that can make Leo great moving forward. He used his size and speed to forecheck the Vegas defender and make the breakout difficult, and then used his hockey sense to track that the puck was about to turn over and attack the open ice, and then used his high skill and long reach to pull off a ridiculous forehand to backhand shot that went top shelf.

The Ducks built on that with a dominant period. From the moment Leo scored to the end of the period, the Ducks had 1.2 xxG.Before that goal, they were only at 0.87 xG. Keep in mind that the goal came at the midway point of the period as well. That was a stellar 10 minutes for this team against a staunch defensive team, and they were rewarded with another goal by Leo Carlsson late.

Defensively, they were also stellar in this period. They really limited Vegas to only shots from the outside when they were in the zone.

This was quite possibly the best 10-minute stretch of the season for the Ducks and is a large driver behind them winning this game

5v5 Shot Chart for the 3rd Period

For the first roughly 10 minutes of the game, the Ducks did attempt to really keep the game wide open and attack as much as they would receive. I have mentioned in previous articles that I have been thoroughly impressed by some of the Ducks’ third periods in the past few games, with them largely still controlling games in spite of score effects. They attempted to do that for the first 10 minutes, but then that really fell by the wayside due to mistake after mistake.

For those first 10 minutes, the Ducks generated nearly all of their 0.83 xG in the third, while allowing roughly 0.6 xG. So they were giving as good as they were taking. The issue is that for the final 10 minutes, up by 1 goal, they essentially flatlined, only generating .04 xG, all while allowing 0.8 xG against. They were receiving the game for that stretch, and I think the most disappointing part was the consistent turnovers that happened in their own end. LaCombe was a bit too mellow with his clear, which was knocked down by Marner and led to ga ame-tying goal.

Yes, Vegas is an elite team in this league, and score effects are going to come into play, but what has driven the success for this team, even in some games where they were outplayed, has been very strong 3rd periods in the face of score effects. In totality, they still won the 5v5 xG battle, but they were also fortunate to go to OT with how they defended late.

With all of that being said about the third period, this was still a very impressive 5v5 game for the Ducks and the third straight one against a good team.

non 5v5 Notes

The only special team note I wanted to focus on was the penalty kill. They got burned for 1 goal against tonight because of how aggressive they are at jumping up and attempting to go the other way. I don’t think you want to stymy that because they have been so dangerous going the other way, but that goal against shows that they may need to be more careful with how they pick their spots to do it. Having a powerkill is nice for the goals for, but it can’t come at the expense of a leaky PK.

I also wanted to note the rollercoaster of a performance by Petr Mrazek. I will never feel comfortable or confident with him in the net due to his off-the-wall style, but he showed tonight that he can still turn out solid performances. It started shaky, with him almost allowing a goal against due to overcommitting on a wrap-around, but he reigned it in as the game went on and made some stellar saves late. He ended the game with a 0.85 GSAx and rewarded the coaching staff’s decision to start him, unconventionally, on the front end back-to-backs.

Brian Hayward Fit Check

When I first saw this look, I was a big fan of it. The subtle turtleneck on the shirt, along with the dark gray, maybe tweed, coat looked very snazzy. Almost Bondvillain-esque in a good way. But then it was brought to my attention by someone in the CTP discord that this was a repeat jacket for Hayward. I must say I expected more from Hazy on the 2-game roadie. For a long road trip, I can stomach a repeat, but for a 2 gamer, I have to knock the score down a bit.

I give this look a 6.3/10

I have no comment that I would like to state on the record for Ahlers’ fit, and I will leave it at that.

All stats per Evolving-Hockey and Hockey Viz